論文

Simulation-based Evaluation of Urban Consolidation Centers Considering Urban Access Regulations


The negative effects of urban freight transports, such as air quality problems, road congestion, and noise emissions lead in many cities to major difficulties. A widely studied measure to reduce these negative effects are Urban Consolidation Centers (UCCs), which aim to bundle freight flows to reduce the number of urban freight transports. However, many projects showed that the additional costs of UCCs often made it unattractive for carriers to participate in such schemes. This paper presents an agent-based simulation to assess the impact of urban access regulations on the cost-attractiveness of UCCs for carriers. A case study inspired by the Frankfurt Rhine-Main area is presented to compare deliveries of a group of carriers with and without a Urban Consolidation Center under various urban access scenarios. The simulation shows that regulations increase the cost-attractiveness of UCCs for carriers to varying degrees while increasing the overall traffic volume.

Agent-based Modeling for Casualty Rate Assessment of Large Event Active Shooter Incidents


The 1999 Columbine attack changed police response to the active shooter incidents (ASI) by the public and first responder’s tactics and training. With FBI data suggesting ASI events increasing, this study offers an AnyLogic models to understand mitigation actions such as Run.Hide.Fight. Our model represents a general densely populated area, such as public transportation terminal or indoor arena. Model agents include civilians, police, and shooter agents interact with the following parameters: civilian evacuation time, the response of police, firearm discharge by the shooter and police. The casualty rates vary from 85 to 1 causalities when the shooter’s rate of discharge was 1 to 60 seconds, respectively. The model as developed was shown to provide a method to evaluate and compare actions such as adequacy of training, introduction of technology into public buildings and the general design of public spaces to reduce the impact of ASI events.

Dynamic Behavioural Modeling, Simulation and Analysis of Household Water Consumption in an Urban Area: a Hybrid Approach


Pakistan is rapidly becoming a water stressed country, thus affecting people’s well-being. Authorities are faced with making drastic water conservation policies toward achieving effective management of available water resources and efficient water supply delivery coupled with responsible demand side management. Due to the lack of modern water metering in Pakistan, water consumption is not being accurately monitored. To achieve this goal, we propose a hybrid modeling and simulation framework, consisting of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) paradigm that deals with the behavior and characteristics of individuals and System Dynamics(SD) paradigm that accounts for water flow dynamics. Our approach provides dual-resolution expressiveness suitable for replicating real-world urban infrastructure scenarios. The key objective of the research is to assist authorities to understand and forecast short-term and long-term water consumption through examining varying patterns of water consumption in different climates and thus improving demand side water usage dynamically subject to water supply availability.

Simulating Passenger’s Shopping Behavior at Airport With a Conceptual Agent-based Model


Airport retail revenue has long been recognized as a critical revenue stream to ensure an airport’s financial sustainability and stability. However, there is a lack of simulation model on how airport terminal could be better designed to facilitate this vital revenue stream. This paper presents a conceptual agent-based simulation model on passengers shopping behavior in the airport context. This model attempts to investigate the relationship between terminal design and retail performance through different scenarios studies. Results show that finger pier terminal shape can have a negative impact on retail revenue if shops are decentralized. Terminal with centralized shopping areas also performed better than a terminal with decentralized shopping area. Future research directions were proposed at the end to improve the existing simulation model with the aim of making it an essential evaluation tool for future terminal design.

Hybrid Simulation Challenges and Opportunities: a Life-cycle Approach


The last 10 years have witnessed a marked upsurge of attention on Hybrid Simulation (HS). The majority of authors define HS as a joint modelling approach which includes two or more simulation approaches (mainly Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics and Agent Based Simulation). Whilst some may argue that HS has been in existence for more than 5 decades, the recent rise tended to be more problem driven rather than technical experimentation. Winter Simulation Conference (WSC) 2015, 2016, 2017 have witnessed 3 panels on the purpose, history and definition of HS, respectively. This paper reports on a comprehensive review conducted by the panelists on HS and its applications.

A Hybrid Discrete Event Agent Based Overdue Pregnancy Outpatient Clinic Simulation Model


This paper provides an overview of a hybrid, discrete event simulation (DES) agent based model (ABM), simulation model of the overdue pregnancy outpatient clinic at the Obstetrics department of Akershus University Hospital, Norway. The model is being developed in collaboration with clinic staff. The purpose of the model is to better plan resources (e.g. staffing) to improve patient flow at the outpatient clinic given the uncertainty associated with demand. The uncertainty is due to an increase in the size of the hospital’s catchment area, changes to overdue pregnancy guidelines in Norway and that women can give birth before their appointments. The ABM model component represents the human parts of the system, the women and the clinic staff. The DES component represents the outpatient clinic’s physical location and processes/pathways that operate within it. The technicalities of the model are presented along with some illustrative results.

Modeling Safest and Optimal Emergency Evacuation Plan for Large-scale Pedestrians Environments


Large-scale events are always vulnerable to natural disasters and man-made chaos which poses great threat to crowd safety. Such events need an appropriate evacuation plan to alleviate the risk of causalities. We propose a modeling framework for large-scale evacuation of pedestrians during emergency situation. Proposed framework presents optimal and safest path evacuation for a hypothetical large-scale crowd scenario. The main aim is to provide the safest and nearest evacuation path because during disastrous situations there is possibility of exit gate blockade and directions of evacuees may have to be changed at run time. The recommended simulation framework incorporates Anylogic simulation environment to design complex spatial environment for large-scale pedestrians as agents.

An Agent-based Simulation Framework for Supply Chain Disruptions and Facility Fortification


Fortifying facilities within a supply chain network can mitigate facility failures caused by disruptions. In this study we build an agent-based simulation model to study the r-interdiction median problem with fortification (RIMF), considering two types of facility disruptions: naturally-caused and human-caused disruptions. The objective of this study is to develop a simulation model that analyzes facility disruption and fortification as a repeated Stackelberg competition, where fortification decisions are made anticipating disruptions.

Dynamic Ride Sharing Using Traditional Taxis and Shared Autonomous Taxis: A Case Study of NYC


This study analyzes the potential benefits and drawbacks of taxi sharing using agent-based modeling. New York City (NYC) taxis are examined as a case study to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of ride sharing using both traditional taxis (with shifts) and shared autonomous taxis. Compared to existing studies analyzing ride sharing using NYC taxi data, reserarchers from the Purdue University proposed a model that incorporates individual heterogeneous preferences; compared traditional taxis to autonomous taxis; and examined the spatial change of service coverage due to ride sharing.

Evaluation of The Effect of Chickenpox Vaccination on Shingles Epidemiology Using Agent-Based Modeling


Biological interactions between varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles), two diseases caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), continue to be debated including the potential effect on shingles cases following the introduction of universal childhood chickenpox vaccination programs. Researchers investigated how chickenpox vaccination in Alberta impacts the incidence and age-distribution of shingles over 75 years post-vaccination, taking into consideration a variety of plausible theories of waning and boosting of immunity.