Agent-based population model used to identify and evaluate dog population management strategies L. Kisiel, A. Jones-Bitton, A.L. Greer; Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON Canada; CEFUTREMA

Developing countries are faced with finding novel and humane ways to permanently reduce and control their dog population. Agent-based models developed to describe dog populations represent a unique, platform for using computer based simulation to identify control strategies with the greatest potential for success, aid in the design of more effective control measures, and provide a means to evaluate the success of different interventions.
» 続きを読む

A Plant-Level, Spatial, Bioeconomic Model Of Plant Disease Diffusion And Control: Grapevine Leafroll Disease Shady S. Atallah, Miguel I. Gómez, Jon M. Conrad, and Jan P. Nyrop, University of New Hampshire

<p>Grapevine leafroll disease threatens the economic sustainability of the grape and wine industry in the United States and around the world. This viral disease reduces yield, delays fruit ripening, and affects wine quality. Although there is new information on the disease spatial-dynamic diffusion, little is known about profit-maximizing control strategies. Using cellular automata, we model the disease spatial-dynamic diffusion for individual plants in a vineyard, evaluate nonspatial and spatial control strategies, and rank them based on vineyard expected net present values. </p>
» 続きを読む

A Tripartite Hybrid Model Architecture for Investigating Health and Cost Impacts and Intervention Tradeoffs for Diabetic End-stage Renal Disease Amy Gao, Nathaniel D. Osgood, Wenyi An, Roland F. Dyck. Winter Simulation Conference, 2014.

Like most countries, Canada faces rising rates of diabetes and diabetic ESRD, which adversely affect cost, morbidity/mortality and quality of life. These trends raise great challenges for financial, human resource and facility planning and place a premium on understanding tradeoffs between different intervention strategies. We describe here our hybrid simulation model built to inform such efforts.
» 続きを読む

Reflections on Two Approaches to Hybrid Simulation in Healthcare Joe Viana, University of Southampton. Winter Simulation Conference, 2014.

Hybrid simulation, the combination of simulation paradigms to address a problem is becoming more popular as the problems we are presented with become more complex. This is evidenced by an increase in the number of hybrid papers published in specific domains and the number of hybrid simulation frameworks being produced across domains.
» 続きを読む

Towards Closed Loop Modeling: Evaluatng The Prospects for Creating Recurrently Regrounded Aggregate Simulation Models Using Particle Filtering Nathaniel Osgood, Juxin Liu, University of Saskatchewan 106 Wiggins Road, University of Saskatchewan Saskatoon. Winter Simulation Conference, 2014

Public health agencies traditionally rely heavily on epidemiological reporting for notifiable disease control, but increasingly apply simulation models for forecasting and to understand intervention tradeoffs. Unfortunately, such models traditionally lack capacity to easily incorporate information from epidemiological data feeds.
» 続きを読む

Comparison between Individual-based and Aggregate Models in the context of Tuberculosis Transmission Tian, Y. and Osgood, N., Proceedings, The 29 th International conference of the System Dynamics Society. July 2011, Washington, D.C.

The desire to better understand the transmission of infectious disease in the real world has motivated the representation of epidemic diffusion in the context of quantitative simulation. In recent decades, both individual-based (such as Agent-Based) models and aggregate models (such as System Dynamics) are widely used in epidemiological modeling. This paper compares the difference between system dynamics models and agent-based models in the context of Tuberculosis (TB) transmission, considering smoking as a risk factor.
» 続きを読む

Agent-Based Simulation of a Tuberculosis Epidemic Parastu Kasaie, David W. Dowdy, W. David Kelton, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

We propose an epidemic agent-based simulation model for disease (TB) transmission dynamics study and to find out the role of various contact networks. Our model simulates the TB epidemic course across a single population and uses a hierarchical network of contacts in three levels, typical to the transmission of airborne diseases (Mossong et al. 2005). Parameters are chosen from the literature, and the model is calibrated to a setting of high TB incidence. We use our model to study the transmission dynamics at an individual level with regard to the timing and distribution of secondary infections from a single source. The average time for disease diffusion to reach 50% of infections at an individual level is estimated, and the timing patterns are compared among different networks. We perform sensitivity analysis of results with regard to multiple parameter values, and discuss the implications for TB control policy.
» 続きを読む

West Nile Virus System Dynamics Investigation In Dallas County, TX Mohammad F. Obeid, John Shull, Proceedings of the 2013 Winter Simulation Conference

After its first introduction in 1999, West Nile Virus (WNV) has spread very widely along the east coasts of the United States before appearing in Texas where 1792 cases were reported of which 82 were fatal in 2012. The interesting patterns and behavior of the virus and its amplified impact on the county of Dallas drove this work. This paper encompasses a thorough development of a systems dynamics simulation model of virus's infectious behavior and dynamics in Dallas County, TX utilizing historical data collected and the aid of suitable software packages.
» 続きを読む