Using Simulation Modeling for IT Cost Analysis Yuri Karpov and Timofei Popkov. The 10th HP Open View University Association Workshop, Switzerland, July 6-9, 2003

In the old days, the price for IT services was formed in a pretty standardized way. Network services had an explicit usage price per Kbit/ sec. The range of provided IT services have been growing very fast and have reached new dimensions of complexity. From infrastructure pricing to web-enabled application availability and performance nowadays the old rules for defining service pricing is not applicable any more. Today it is difficult or sometime even impossible to associate the provided service levels with the cost related to the processes of operation, maintenance and the capital cost behind it. The old measures of dollars per Kbit/sec cannot be the right measure any more.
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A Modern Simulation Approach for Pharmaceutical Portfolio Management Kirk Solo and Mark Paich. International Conference on Health Sciences Simulation (ICHSS'04), January 18 - 21, 2004, San Diego, California, USA

By creating an integrated simulation environment that models the underlying structure of a pharmaceutical enterprise portfolio it becomes possible to identify the optimal longitudinal allocation of finite resources across the constellation of available investment opportunities. The implementation of a hybrid approach that integrates multiple modeling techniques and analytic disciplines allows for a comprehensive environment that captures the underlying dynamics that drive observed market behavior. The implementation of an object oriented model structure constrains the models complexity by supporting dynamic re-use of both structure and logic.
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Agent Modeling of Hispanic Population Acculturation and Behavior Lyle Wallis, Mark Paich, and Andrei Borshchev. The 3rd International Conference on Systems Thinking in Management (ICSTM 2004), May 19 - 21, 2004, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

In recent US Census data widely reported in the press “Hispanics” have become the largest minority group in the US. Using simulation modeling technology we look at some of the structural forces that shape the characteristics of the Hispanic population. The model creates a simulated Hispanic population whose level of acculturation to the broader population of which it is a part dynamically varies according to individual choice. The modeling technique used draws on both System Dynamic and Agent based paradigms both supported by innovative AnyLogic software. The representative Hispanic population is disaggregated down to the individual level as individual agents. Each agent makes choices stochastically as modulated by its current state and the outside environment that it is in.
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Geographically-Enhanced Mathematical Models of HIV Dynamics Bobashev G.V., Zule W., Root E.D., Wechsberg W.M., Borshchev A. V., and Filippov A.E. NIDA Symposium on AIDS, Cancer and Related Problems, May 26, 2004, St. Petersburg, Russia

Mathematical modeling is a relatively new but fast developing area of HIV studies providing researchers with an additional dynamical dimension in epidemiological work that allows scientists to simulate the consequences of various intervention and prevention scenarios. We illustrate these concepts by presenting a model that describes Injecting Drug Users (IDU) networks, injecting behavior and HIV/HCV spread within the networks. This individual-based (also called agent-based) model is used to investigate the impact of the introduction of Integralcannula syringes (ICS) instead of commonly used Detachable Needle syringes (DNS). Laboratory experiments have shown that ICS retain approximately 1000 times less residual blood (<.001 ml vs. 1ml) following injection and rinsing than DNS thereby decreasing risk of HIV/NCV transmission by nearly 100 times after 2 rinses.
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Scalable Mathematical Models for Substance Use: From Social Networks to the Whole Populations Georgiy V. Bobashev, William A. Zule, Elizabeth D. Root, Wendee M. Wechsberg, Andrei V. Borshchev, and Alex E. Filippov. The College on Problems of Drug Dependence 66th Annual Meeting, June 12–17, 2004, San Juan, Puerto Rico

Mathematical modeling is a relatively new but fast developing area of substance use field providing researchers with additional dynamical dimension in epidemiological work and allowing scientists to simulate the consequences of various intervention and prevention scenarios. We illustrate these concepts by presenting two models. The first model describes Injecting Drug Users (IDU) networks, injecting behavior and HIV/HCV spread among the networks. The size, structure of the networks as well as frequency of injecting and HIV risks were obtained from published literature on urban IDU networks. This individual-based model was used to investigate the impact of introduction of Integral-cannula syringes (ICS) instead of commonly used Detachable Needle syringes (DNS).
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Modeling General Motors and the North American Automobile Market Philip T. Keenan and Mark Paich. The 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 25 - 29, 2004, Oxford, England

This article discusses General Motors’ North American Enterprise Model, a system dynamics model of the entire North American automobile market. The Enterprise Model takes a broad look across the corporation and its marketplace, combining internal activities such as engineering, manufacturing and marketing with external factors such as competition for consumer purchases in the new and used vehicle marketplaces. Eight groups of manufacturers compete monthly for a decade across eighteen vehicle segments, making segment-by-segment decisions about price, volume and investment.
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From System Dynamics and Discrete Event to Practical Agent Based Modeling: Reasons, Techniques, Tools Andrei Borshchev and Alexei Filippov. The 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 25 - 29, 2004, Oxford, England

This paper may be considered as a practical reference for those who wish to add (now sufficiently matured) Agent Based modeling to their analysis toolkit and may or may not have some System Dynamics or Discrete Event modeling background. We focus on systems that contain large numbers of active objects (people, business units, animals, vehicles, or even things like projects, stocks, products, etc. that have timing, event ordering or other kind of individual behavior associated with them). We compare the three major paradigms in simulation modeling: System Dynamics, Discrete Event and Agent Based Modeling with respect to how they approach such systems. We show in detail how an Agent Based model can be built from an existing System Dynamics or a Discrete Event model and then show how easily it can be further enhanced to capture much more complicated behavior, dependencies and interactions thus providing for deeper insight in the system being modeled.
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A Methodological Framework for Business-Oriented Modeling of IT Infrastructure Ariel Landau, Segev Wasserkrug, Dagan Gilat, Natalia Razinkov, Aviad Sela, and Sarel Aiber. 2004 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC’04), December 5-8, Washington, D.C., USA

The creation of IT simulation models for uses such as capacity planning and optimization is becoming more and more widespread. Traditionally, the creation of such models required deep modeling and/or programming expertise, thus severely limiting their extensive use. Moreover, many modern intelligent tools now require simulation models in order to carry out their function. For these tools to be widely deployable, the derivation of simulation models must be made possible without requiring excessive technical knowledge.
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Spatial Dynamics of Social Network Evolution Sara Metcalf and Mark Paich. The 23rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, July 17 - 21, 2005, Boston, USA

This paper explores the problem of fragmenting social networks enabled by spatial distancing between distinct socioeconomic classes. Such fragmentation is evidenced by the experience of urban sprawl without population growth. We develop a prototype model to examine the spatial dynamics of social network evolution in the face of neighborhood migration. This model draws upon the small world analogy by using an initial template of connections that are “rewired” over time. Spatially, connections are established for neighborhood proximity. Socially, connections are added based upon similarity of economic class.
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Optimizing Freight Transportation Policies for Sustainability - A Simulation-Based Investigation of Freight Transportation Policy Planning and Supply Chains Christopher Glazner and Sgouris Sgouridis, MIT Sloan School of Management

Regional freight transportation policy planning is a difficult task, as few policy-planners have adequate tools to aid their understanding of how various policy formulations affect this complex, socio-technical system. In this paper, we develop a proof-of-concept model to simulate the impacts of public policies on freight transportation in a simulated region. We use the techniques of multi-disciplinary system design and optimization to analyze the formulation of regional freight transportation policies and examine the relative effects of policies and exogenous forces on the region in order to provide insight into the policy-planning process. Both single objective and multi-objective analysis is performed to provide policy-planners with a clear understanding of the trade-offs made in policy formulation.
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