戦略プランニングと管理その他の事例を見る»

長期計画策定するとは、確信のないデータ値と依存性は避けられない要因です。このようなケースでは、不確実性因子を単に無視し、あるいは仮定の議論をします。また、決定は確定的モデルに基づいてなされます。 それは、経済的状況に影響する要因がすべて正確に知られているか、個別の範囲以内にあると仮定します。これらの値のうちのいくつかは単に"unknowns" です。また、最良の推測、グループ一致、あるいは最近のデータは代理として使用されます。しかし、時折、基本変数は含まれていないか、あるいは分析で仮定し続けます。恐らく、2つの小さな要因間の重要な相互作用は、主なコスト推進要因になります。単にアナリストのメンタル・モデルがそれらの重要性を理解しなかったというだけの理由で、"unknown unknowns" とそれらのインパクトは、単にスプレッド・シートにおいてテストされた基本変数の可能値のモンテカルロ・コンビネーションによって解決することができません。確率の法則は、経験で言うまでも無く、これらの確定的モデルの多くが著しい営業赤字に結びつく事を知らせます。

私たちは、依存性と敏感さをテストするために多数のシナリオ内の隠れた相互作用の覆いを取るために、確率的な結果の範囲をカバーするためにこれらの状況でモデル化するシミュレーションを使用します; 要するに、私たちの理解力を単に定量化するのではなく、私たちの思考に通知するために。モデルは、不確実性の覆いを取り、軽減戦略、確率的な危険および可能性のある否定のシナリオを開発することで、"most likely"(最も有効な)ソリューションを開発することを可能にします。

AnyLogicのアドバンテージについてコメントをいただければ幸いです。
 
送信
閉じる

レビュー&推薦の言葉

  • AnyLogic is a powerful simulation tool combined with Java. What I like about AnyLogic is its velocity, adaptability, and versatility.

    Mariana Dorigatti,
    INGAR-CONICET
  • We use AnyLogic to understand better, improve and demonstrate how complex systems work. My personal favorite aspect of AnyLogic is the fact that it compiles the simulation models into a general purpose, fully object-oriented program language, like Java. Which allows us to embed optimization algorithms into simulations without writing unnecessary code.

    Onur Dulgeroglu, Senior Analytics Engineer,
    GE Global Research
  • Simulation and modeling are important elements of a science based approach in disaster and emergency management. AnyLogic provides disaster and emergency management professionals with agent based modeling and tools that can simulate hazards and risks, emergency preparedness and response efforts, and post disaster recovery scenarios.

    Ali Asgary,
    Disaster & Emergency Management Program, York University
  • Anylogic is by far one of the most advanced software programs for simulation of complex systems. It can be applied efficiently in the modeling of highly complex systems in various spheres of contemporary economics and teaching, as well as in teaching MBA classes to top managers and corporate decision makers.

    Dmitry Katalevsky, Ph.D. Economics, lecturer MBA/EMBA classes, Senior Manager,
    Deloitte & Touche CIS
  • We chose AnyLogic because we found that traditional techniques did not do just to what we were trying to model. When we saw AnyLogic, it was a great ah-ha moment to say this is the tool I need to solve the problems I am trying to solve. The benefits of a multi-method modeling approach are that you can solve the problem more naturally. If you do not have the ability to do multi-method modeling, you end up creating all types of anomalies in your model, fitting the methodology rather than fitting the problem. Multimethod modeling is a great effective tool.

    Bipin Chadha, Ph.D., Data Scientist,
    USAA
  • AnyLogic is not only a multifunctional simulation modeling tool, but it is also a high-tech software developed on the basis of the current standards and principles of software engineering. It is an efficient decision-making tool which can cope with the challenges of management and market economy. Every release provides you with new sample models and case studies which show all the varieties of spheres where simulation modeling can be applied. AnyLogic has been used in State University of Management for about 8 years, in an MBA course of the Business School and upgrade courses of economic processes simulation.

    Natalia Lychkina,
    Moscow State University of Management
  • As an educator, I was in the market for a modeling package to teach to help my undergraduate students understand the principles of multi-domain modeling. After reviewing several products, AnyLogic combined the robust feature set I was interested in with an intuitive user interface that should make it easy for my students to pick up the tool and start gaining insight into their problems in a hurry. I was also extremely pleased with the flexible pricing for academic users.

    Marshall Bartlett,
    Hollins University
  • AnyLogic was very useful software for me in studying and modeling economical processes in regional agriculture. It has all functionality that can satisfy the highest requirements from user. Especially helpful for my project was such functionality as usage of dimensions of arrays in SD models, replications of objects, export and import data from Excel files in experiments with variation of parameters, and import files from Vensim.

    Mikhail Bagrov,
    Tver agricultural academy
  • I have been using AnyLogic for 5 years for various commercial projects (transportation, demographic projection, etc.), and in education. Taking into consideration my experience in using different agent based modeling tools, I can say that AnyLogic leaves them all behind. AnyLogic provides you with the possibility of visual design of elements in models and a rich library of controls. According to my experience, students show better performance and learn material efficiently when using AnyLogic. I would like to point out the growing popularity of this tool, as you can often see various AnyLogic models presented at Social Dynamics congresses.

    Albert Bakhtizin,
    CEMI Russian Academy of Sciences
  • I have been using AnyLogic for a few years for models in the social and healthcare context. I like that you can start using it almost out of the box and get some results with straightforward presentations. I like the fact that I can mix and match simulation paradigms like ABM and System Dynamics... in my models keeps my opportunities open. Easy interface with Java classes or libraries makes the full system customizable. I can easily publish the models to a web site or for individual deployment. And last but not least, I can work in teams by using typical source control SVN...

    David Lovece,
    Northeastern University

これらの会社は、AnyLogic を使用しています: 戦略プランニングと管理

ケーススタディ

  • イタリア銀行 バックオフィスシステム モデリング
    イタリア銀行(BANCA D'ITALIA)は毎年一定量の銀行口座振替 を処理します。振替は自動的に処理することができず、銀行の バック・オフィスの2つの部署に依頼することになります。銀行 は、2つの部署の合併が有益かどうか判断が必要でした。
  • Utilizing Real-World Data and Multimethod Modeling to Battle Food Insecurity
    Issues such as whether households get enough food, how it is distributed within the household and whether that food fulfils the nutrition needs of all members of the household is an ongoing problem in developing countries. An International Civil Agency employed a Major Consulting Firm to analyze food insecurity in developing countries and cultivate a system that enables an economy to prepare for and halt possible food insecurity.
  • ロシア経済におけるヒューマンリソース需要予測
    中央および東ヨーロッパでも有数のIBSグループ ソフトウェア 開発部門は、ロシア教育・科学省による“ロシア経済における スキルがある専門家の需要を予測する解析システム ”(Analytical System for Forecasting the Demand in Skilled Professionals in Russia’s Economy)開発のプロ ジェクトに従事しました。